CHINA’S WORLD
China’s dramatic growth over the last 40 years was at first welcomed and encouraged in the West, in part because it brought some economic benefits for the rest of the world, in part because it seemed to be leading China towards being a more open, liberal and law-bound country. However, as the prospect of this century producing a China that is the richest and most powerful state in the world has seemed ever more likely, this has inevitably led to much greater apprehensions in other states. At the same time China itself has been going through a process of reconsidering many of the cautious maxims of Deng Xiaoping and replacing them with what the leadership regards as a policy framework that is more appropriate for a superpower. In other words, with power have come problems, both for China and the rest of the world.
US-China strategic rivalry and its implications
This paper discusses the latest developments and prospects for US-China relations and their implications for China and global governance. It argues that an era of “peace and development” featuring growing interdependence between the US and China in the context of intensified globalisation has given way to an era of strategic rivalry between the US and China.
China’s National Security Strategy and Military Strategy for a New Era Major General
China’s time-honored security concepts and abundant security strategies are parts of the important reasons why the Chinese nation still stands firmly in the East through five thousand years of vicissitudes. China’s traditional security strategic concept takes on the following five important features: First, guarding against adversity in times of peace and taking precautions for potential vulnerabilities. There is a great saying in Zhouyi that states “One should be mindful of possible danger in times of peace, downfall in times of prosperity, and chaos in times of stability.” Second, dealing with wars prudently. As the first statement in Sun Tzu’s Art of War goes, “War is a matter of vital importance to the state, a matter of life and death, a road either to survival or to ruin. Hence, it is imperative that it be thoroughly studied.” Third, stressing defense rather than offense. All the Chinese dynasties emphasized the internal order and stability with a strategic focus on resisting aggression of the nomadic people from the north. Fourth, combining military measures with non-military ones, tempering force with mercy.
China’s Belt-Road Initiative: Objectives, Attractions and Challenges
Suisheng Zhao and Guo Dan
This article argues that the BRI vision for global connectivity focuses rightfully on infrastructure construction to meet the desperate needs in many developing countries. Applied wisely, the BRI could help transform China’s relations with participating countries and provide a stage to demonstrate China’s international leadership especially after the U.S. has retreated from global leadership. But realizing the BRI objectives requires not only vision but also scrupulous economic planning and formidable diplomatic actions. The challenges for China are to make BRI commercially sustainable, balance China’s own interests with the interests of partners, and create the shared values, inspiring other countries to work with China for a better future.
Living in each other’s worlds: China and Japan
China and Japan have been inextricably linked for centuries but until recently, the legacy of 20th Century war has soured their diplomatic relationship. Now the mood is changing, with China offering a hand of friendship to Japan, as it tries to persuade its neighbour to sign up to the Belt and Road Initiative. However, suspicions of Chinese ideology run deep in Tokyo and often emerge in the media.When I asked a right-wing journalist in Tokyo to tell me why he writes scathing articles about China, he put it this way: “We don’t want to live like them.” He is deputy editor of a newspaper which regularly complains about the Chinese government, its business policies and the many failings it sees in Chinese society. However its strongest condemnation is directed towards the “panda huggers” - Japanese people who align with China and who - in the view of the columnist - become deluded by Chinese propaganda, without realising the political danger. As a proud Japanese nationalist, this dismays him.
Going beyond the world. China reaches for outer space.
China’s self-proclaimed dream is clear cut; it “aspires to become a major space power”.i China’s drive to become a major “space power” (taikong liliang) is the latest development in China’s rise as a terrestrial “great power” (da guo). This both reflects and pushes the trend towards “globalization of space”, breaking the old US/Soviet duopoly of the Cold War era and its Space Race between those two rivals. Currently, just as there is competition and perhaps power transition going on between the US and China down below in the international system and global economy, so there is competition and perhaps power transition going on up above? China’s nightmare is that it will be closed out of space by the United States (US). China’s space dream is of course the US nightmare. American fears about China’s cumulative space advances are that they indicate China’s “interest in space dominance”; in which “Beijing is making it clear that it intends to increasingly compete with the United States for pre-eminence in space, both strategically and commercially”. ii Such mutual perceptions create classic security dilemmas between these two great terrestrial powers, a new Cold War and Space Race emerging between the US and China.
The Greater Middle East: China’s Reality Check
If any one part of the world has forced China to throw its long-standing foreign and defense policy principles out the window and increasingly adopt attitudes associated with a global power, it is the greater Middle East, a region that stretches from the Atlantic coast of Africa to north-western China.The Middle East’s ability to influence Chinese policy stems from its decades-long, uncanny capability to foist itself high up on the agenda of the international community and its most powerful constituents. The Middle East’s relevance was facilitated by China’s need to protect its growing economic and geopolitical interests bundled into the Belt and Road initiative, a US$1 trillion infrastructure-driven effort to tie Eurasia to the People’s Republic, and China’s desire to take advantage of President Donald J. Trump’s damaging of US credibility by projecting itself as the defender of the world order. Developments in the greater Middle East left China no choice but to reinterpret or dump on the dustbin of history principles of noninterference in the domestic affairs of others, an economically-driven win-win approach as a sort of magic wand for problem solution, and no foreign military interventions or bases. Nonetheless, hampered by its reticence to articulate a Middle East policy that goes beyond economic, technical, military and anti-terrorism cooperation, China’s progressive embrace of foreign and defense policies typical for a global power means that increasingly the People’s Republic is likely to be sucked into the Middle East’s multiple conflicts and disputes.
The China model as a discourse
Despite the fact that several scholars have dismissed it as a myth, the “China model” continues to pervade academic debates about Chinese foreign policy. Recently, it has been used to channel anxiety about China’s global rise as well as a path for developing countries seeking to achieve a similar economic success. This paper treats the China model as a discursive construction. Although it is constantly reshaped and manipulated, it constitutes a way of knowing and experiencing the world that has implications for policies toward China. Looking at the various discourses of the China model, this paper presents the argument that the Chinese government, including Xi Jinping with his “China plan” (fang-an), cannot be said to be plotting to spread an “illiberal” model. For many scholars and citizens around the world, globalization no longer seems to be an end in itself, and US leadership, with its commitment to liberal values, has lost some of its attraction (Rodrik 2011; Weber et al 2007). China, as a rising global power, now appears to be the main advocate of globalization, even though it does not share all the liberal values usually associated with the phenomenon (Kynge 2007; Agamennone 2017). Despite its integration with the global world, its attitude toward the established international institutions and practices is ambivalent (Webster 2014; Chan 2006; Kent 2007). China seems to have defied liberal expectations that its governance would ultimately converge with liberal values, such as human rights, democracy, and rule of law. Given the systemic nature of the challenge China poses to the existing economic and legal order and its potential ability to reshape international norms and institutions, mass media outlets and academic journals have increasingly discussed a “China model.” For some, this model reflects a shift away from a more status-quo behaviour in Chinese diplomacy—a shift that could threaten the Western liberal model (Chen 2017).
CHINA’S BUSINESS WORLD
OBOR and trade wars
Chris Dixon and Chris Luenen
The escalating USA trade war must be seen as part of a much wider US push-back against a rising China, and indeed much of the global system that is considered not to be acting in the American interest. For China, this raises concerns over the impact on its economy and highly integrated domestic and international efforts, not least its flagship One Belt, One Road (OBOR), related Asian and Eurasian regionalisation and institution building, and the critical - and markedly improving relations with key players in these developments (Dixon and Slavic 2018). Although a sudden about-face by Trump culminating in a comprehensive deal between the US and China should not be ruled out, as things currently stand, more likely is a significant intensification of American actions during 2019.
South Korea’s THAAD decision: How South Korea’s economy suffered?
In 2017, South Korea decided to field the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system in its territory owing to the growing missile threat from North Korea. The decision to field the THAAD system was pending for a while as South Korea did not wish to initially annoy the Chinese.
South Korea -that shared a strong bilateral trade relation with China- suffered adversely as following the fielding of the THAAD, China boycotted South Korean goods and services. China’s economic retaliation has completely jolted the South Korean economy and many South Korean companies have either sold off or restructured their business ventures.
China in the Arctic: In the grey zone of economics and security
M. Taylor Fravel, Kathryn Lavelle and Liselotte Odgaard
On September 10, 2018, Greenland and Denmark reached an agreement in which Denmark would finance the development of international airports in the capital of Nuuk as well as Ilulissat and Qaqortoq. These airports are considered crucial for Greenland’s connections with Europe and America and hence for the island’s economic development. Denmark will pay 700 million Danish crowns (US$ 109) for a 33 per cent stake in Kalaallit Airports, a state-owned company set up to build, own and operate the three airports. The agreement also commits Denmark to provide credit worth 450 million crowns for the projects and provide a state guarantee for another 450 million crowns loan from the Nordic Investment Bank.